The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity
Recent research has demonstrated that retirement planning and well-being are closely tied to probabilistic forecasts about future events. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, I show that individuals’ subjective survival forecasts exhibit systematic biases relative to life table data. In particular, many respondents fail to account for increases in yearly mortality rates...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Economic Journal
سال: 2002
ISSN: 0013-0133,1468-0297
DOI: 10.1111/1468-0297.00065